The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics
Monitor memory supply trends to anticipate consumer device RAM cost increases.
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Summary
David Oks explains how the memory industry’s fixed wafer capacity is being re‑allocated to meet the explosive demand for high‑bandwidth memory (HBM) driven by AI data centres. HBM currently occupies only 2% of wafer capacity but is projected to rise to 20% by the end of 2026, consuming three times the wafer capacity per gigabyte compared to DDR or LPDDR. The shift constrains consumer‑device RAM production, already impacting the sub‑$100 smartphone market in Africa and South Asia. Memory manufacturers deliberately under‑provision capacity to avoid over‑production, following lessons from past industry collapses. The article predicts that consumer electronics using memory will see significant price increases over the next few years. It highlights the broader economic implications of AI‑driven hardware demand.
Key changes
- HBM wafer allocation rising to 20% by 2026.
- HBM consumes 3x wafer capacity per GB.
- Consumer‑device RAM production constrained.
- Sub‑$100 smartphone market affected.
- Memory manufacturers under‑provision capacity.